IDN TAKE: Importance of EU Lifting Sanctions against Russia to Solve the Syrian Refugee Crisis

It was in February 2014 that Crimea was annexed by Russia following a legal referendum exercised by the Crimean people. US and EU at the behest of Kiev govt. wasted no time in imposing trade sanctions on Russia and expelled it from G-8. This sanction was quite stifling for Russian economy which was vastly aggravated by sharp fall in crude oil and gas price in international market in 2015 since Russia is a major exporter of these. But the West possibly made a great error in thinking that resilience of the Russian economy is fragile like those of North Korea or Iran. Russia’s resilience is recorded in history which repeats itself.

Let us now digress to Syrian civil war which started in March 2011by anti-government forces led by Syria’s conservative Muslims and the Kurdish minority when similar movements became active in the Middle east and North Africa. The movement escalated at strange rapidity all over Syria in less than 3 months in which EU applied sanctions on Assad govt. of Syria and an arms embargo on Syria. It was from June 2011 that hands of far stronger anti government forces were observed with ambushing and killing of 120 govt troops by a band of gunmen in the northern city of Jisr al-Shugh. This further escalated the violence in Syria as govt. had to step up military action all over Syria.

In early November 2011 Syrian officials reportedly agreed to an Arab League initiative calling for the Syrian government to stop violence against protesters, remove tanks and armoured vehicles from cities, and release political prisoners. But this did not last long as the rebels which were by now rejuvenated by secret hands stepped up destructive acts and new violent outbreaks were observed in different cities. However the attempts of Arab league and UN failed to establish peace in escalating civil war and in November Syrian opposition leaders announced the formation of a new coalition called the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (sometimes called the Syrian National Coalition). Over the next month the coalition received recognition from dozens of countries as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people.With no decisive outcome in sight, the international allies of the Syrian government and the rebels stepped up their support, raising the prospect of a regional proxy war. Efforts by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar to fund and arm rebels became increasingly public in late 2012 and early 2013, while the Syrian government continued to receive weapons from Iran, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and later from Russia. By late 2012 Hezbollah had also begun sending its own fighters into Syria to battle the rebels.

There were new calls for international military action in Syria after suspected chemical weapons attacks in the suburbs of Damascus killed hundreds on August 21, 2013. The Syrian opposition accused pro-Assad forces of having carried out the attacks. Syrian officials denied having used chemical weapons and asserted that if such weapons had been used, rebel forces were to blame. While UN weapons inspectors collected evidence at the sites of the alleged chemical attacks, U.S., British, and French leaders denounced the use of chemical weapons and made it known that they were considering retaliatory strikes against the Syrian regime. Russia, China, and Iran spoke out against military action and attributed the chemical bombing to dubious rebel acts while Assad vowed to fight what he described as Western aggression.

The prospect of international military intervention in Syria began to fade by the end of August, in part because it became evident that majorities in the United States and the United Kingdom were opposed to military action. A motion in the British Parliament to authorize strikes in Syria failed on August 29,2013 and a similar vote in the U.S. Congress was postponed. Meanwhile, diplomacy took centre stage, resulting in an agreement between Russia, Syria, and the United States on September 14,2013 to place all of Syria’s chemical weapons under international control.

Bucca, Prison camp in IRAQ established in the wake of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 to take down the government of Saddam Hussein, provided an 'extraordinary opportunity' for the growing number of jihadists imprisoned there to gather their thoughts and regroup for a common purpose. After the departure of US forces these Jihadists by that time free, joined hands to form a formidable force. The Al-Qaida fighters, trained and armed by Assad to fight the Americn forces in Iraq, Hezbollah and other militant groups covertly financed by various agencies got united in Iraq after departure of the US forces and wrested one after the other vast tracts of land and oil facilities in Iraq with inadequate resistance from Maliki’s govt.

On the other hand despite pleas from the highest levels in Washington, Maliki's government in Iraq has done virtually nothing to halt the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' flights to resupply the Assad regime with thousands of tons of military hardware and ammunition. Ironically, Al-Qaida's wholesale introduction into Iraq came at the hands of Assad's regime. From 2005 until the end of the American occupation of Iraq Assad's military intelligence services and their Iranian backers sought to defeat the US forces by training, financing and arming al-Qaida operatives inside Syria and dispatching them across the border to Iraq to foment chaos and destruction. This group after US departure formed the genesis of what later came to be known as ISIL and ISIS.

Finances of the new rebel group in Iraq after the end of US occupation has come, tangentially, perhaps, from the Saudis and the Americans, largely from sale of oil from oil fields in eastern Syria, from the theft of antiquities in Syria, one and a half billion dollars from the capture of Mosul. Their coffers apparently were only $500 million before they took Mosul, and later it is said that they control about $2 billion in cash and gold. Also, their advances proceeded deep into the the open border between Syria and Iraq enriching their coffers astronomically each passing day.

In October, 2014 ISIS declared caliphate at a place straddled between Iraq and Syria and their advances moved on without stop capturing cities and oil fields one after the other and vastly enriching themselves with the spoils of two countries. With Iran and now Russia after EU sanction, supplying Assad with stepped up arms and military help there is no sign of reduction in the intensity of the Syrian civil war. It can be noted that migration of Syrian refugees to Turkey in search of a place of survival in Europe was never so massive although civil war started as far back as in 2010. It is only after EU sanction that Russia vowed to resist the fall of Assad at all costs and there after began Assad’s fiercest battle with the rebel forces including ISIS. This saw total destruction of cities after cities of Syria. Destruction of Palmyra, the cultural abode of Syria by ISIS has been a great blow to the peace loving world whereafter the Syrian population decisively knew that this land was no place for their survival.

Russia and Iran have been doing a great job as otherwise spread of ISIS would have occurred far beyond Syria after Assad’s fall. Millions of Syrian refugees now cross Turkey, the Mediterranean, Greece, Serbia and Hungary to proceed to Germany their ultimate haven to live with jobs, remuneration and shelter. It is however physically impossible for Germany alone to shelter all the 5 million refugees that is expected to follow in the course of next few years. Rest of EU and US will have to take the burden of refugees and where it would stop no body knows.

As it happens and as recorded in history this kind of huge refugee influx is never allowed to mingle with the mainstream of a nation. They are confined to camps and provided with simple food, clothing , medicine and toiletry to survive as long as their land is habitable again for them to return and be rehabilitated where they would find jobs for reconstruction work. Hence EU have to camp around 5 million refugees indefinitely, till the Syrian civil war ends. Nobody knows when.

If a solution to this is needed to be immediately found EU and US will have to sit with Russia and Iran including Assad to sort out their differences. With Iran the western sanction is about to be lifted, thanks to the initiatives of Obama govt. With Russia the bone of contention was Crimea which is in fact a non entity. The US and EU may want to save Crimeans. But the Crimeans are happy right where they are. One year after the annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula in the Black Sea, poll after poll shows that the locals there — be they Ukrainians, ethnic Russians or Tatars are mostly all in agreement: life with Russia is better than life with Ukraine. Little has changed over the last 12 months. Despite huge efforts on the part of Kiev backed by EU and US, bulk of humanity living on the Black Sea peninsula believe the referendum to secede from Ukraine was legitimate. At some point, the West will have to recognize Crimea’s right to self rule in their own interest. Hope it would not be too late as after taking Iran and Russia into their stride and befriending Assad, the West and the Arab league have to plan a massive land invasion to liberate Syria and Iraq from ISIS and other rebel forces which may be a job equal or greater in dimension to WWII and may take about three to four years or more.

First job now therefore For EU is to lift the sanction and shake hands with Russia. While Iran is already in the war in Syria, Russia’s contribution has transformed over last 6 weeks from a supplier of hardware and expertise to an event manager for victory over rebel forces who have lost their identities in menacing ISIS and Al Qaeda affiliates , although still the Russian boots have been kept away from Syrian soil. From this supportive role Russia needs to be converted to a full fledged participant and a part of the coalition forces for invasion as its striking ability is huge. Russia had one leg in Syrian civil war right from the beginning. They have a strong naval base TARTUS in Syria which has recently been expanded and further fortified. This in all probability is the most suitable launching pad for a Russian invasion of Syria as and when it is needed after the enemy positions and their fury are sufficiently softened down by constant aerial bombing as being conducted now.

ISRAEL who has been a long time ally of the West is disenchanted with the ineffective approach of the coalition forces and of late is seen to seek Russia's help for containing ISIS. As discussed earlier even if UN resolution is obtained no member of the coalition forces has its own public support and more importantly support of their own legislation for invasion of Syria. USA has a declared policy of not sending troops to Syria beyond a symbolic presence. Jeremy Corbyn has already scuttled an attempt of PM Cameron to convince the Commons for sending bombers and troops to Syria. Moreover, Russia enjoys the trust of Assad more than anybody.

Nevertheless it is of utmost importance for the EU to solve the Syrian crisis as the refugee influx by 2016 to Europe may cross over 4 Million which is unworkable. Already the political crisis in Greece and Portugal has been blowing the left wind stronger than ever against the austerity concept preached by EU. Recent refugee crisis has polarised the whole EU. In the ensuing winter around 2 million Refugees staying in temporary camps in open fields have the possibility of large scale suffering and death. Hence Euro scepticism is gaining huge ground every day and a mortal blow to European unity may not be far away. Befriending Russia is therefore the only way left.

Hope the West will see the reality and act at the earliest.