French Arms Crisis Averted

The Rafale is finally winning export orders, the French army is buying new tactical unmanned air vehicles, and the air force has three large satellite procurements in the pipeline.

Some hurdles remain, notably the need to conclude a deal with India for the sale of 36 Rafales. The French Defense Ministry is likewise impatient to take delivery this year of delayed A400Ms that meet tactical requirements, and is also troubled by Poland’s new government, which may be rethinking the previous administration’s plan to buy French Caracal helicopters.

On the bright side, defense spending saw a slight boost in 2015, and with the government boasting a record 16 billion Euros (US$18 billion) in arms exports last year – thanks largely to Rafale sales in Egypt and Qatar – the French defense sector is poised for modest growth.

The Rafale sale to India has been more than four years in the making, and has been reduced from the 126 aircraft agreed with Dassault in early 2012 to a government-to-government sale of just 36. In January, when French president Francois Hollande failed to bring home a signed contract for the fighters after a state visit to New Delhi, Dassault was quick to assure that an agreement would be reached within four weeks, but France’s chief weapons buyer Laurent Collet-Billon declined to give a specific timeline for the order, saying only that he expects the deal to be finalized this year.

As for Dassault’s ability to produce Rafales at a steady cadence, Collet-Billon said he is confident that the company can manage. With 48 exports in hand, split evenly between Cairo and Doha, he says Dassault is reviewing what can be done in terms of production rate. Assuming an 11-month work cycle, he says that at least two Rafale per month are certain, or 22 per year, with the potential to increase up to 33. However, “it will be very difficult to go beyond that,” he said. “Customers will be served on a first-come, first-served basis.”