After the March 22 terrorist attacks in Brussels, for which the Islamic State (ISIS) has claimed credit, it is time to start thinking more seriously about how to thwart the group.
In this, it is important to keep in mind that ISIS is not al Qaeda. For one, the ISIS-sponsored network in Europe includes at least 90 well-trained, well-supported, and well-supplied operatives. Their tactics were honed on hot battlefields and in the bombed-out basements of war-torn Syria, not at terrorist boot camps or in the caves of the Hindu Kush, as was the case for al Qaeda. And whereas al Qaeda members mainly carried Middle Eastern passports, many ISIS members travel on European documents; the majority of those who attacked Paris in November are thought to have been citizens of European Union countries. The same is likely true of the Brussels bombers. That gives ISIS an advantage as it strikes at harder and harder targets.
Second, beyond ISIS’ core Western network are scores of unaffiliated or loosely affiliated jihadists. In fact, many of the so-called ISIS attacks have no direct logistical links to the group and are mainly inspired by propaganda and online resources. All of the ISIS-related attacks in Australia, Canada, and the United States thus far fit into this mold, including the December 2015 San Bernardino assault that killed 14 people and injured 21 others. Al Qaeda kept tighter control of those it allowed to claim its brand.
In short, the ISIS threat is more akin to the state-sponsored terrorism emanating from Iran.
The White House refers to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria as a terrorist organization. The group's name, however, reveals more about the nature of its aspirations. To reach its goal of establishing a caliphate in Iraq and Syria, ISIS has built itself to resemble a government, complete with a military, a police force, and public-works projects.
Rather than using targeted attacks to further specific goals, ISIS is waging full-out war on the Iraqi government in a campaign to capture territory, then governing those territories in an organized fashion.
ISIS is already laying down new laws in Iraq. Last week, the group handed out a "Contract of the City" to residents of the northern Niniveh province, where Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city, is located. The Washington Post translated the contract's 16 main points, in which ISIS threatens to punish thieves by amputation, promises to sentence nonbelievers to death, and urges women to stay indoors unless absolutely necessary.
In The Atlantic, Aaron Zelin looks to the al-Raqqa state of Syria for a hint of how ISIS might govern in Iraq. In al-Raqqa, where ISIS has been in charge since 2013, the group provides policing, many public works, religious education, and health and welfare programs.
ISIS also has a strong public-relations arm that trumpets the group's successes and trawls for new recruits. It maintains an active presence on Twitter and YouTube — apparently a must for any terrorist in this day and age — and used social media to publicize claims of a 1,700-person massacre in Tikrit over the weekend. Residents in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, a city far removed from the conflicts in Iraq and Syria, found propaganda leaflets stuffed into their car door handles and windshields last month.
Just last week, a Twitter account called "Supporters of the Islamic State" tweeted a cartoon of ISIS fighters flying the black jihadist flag on the road to the Iraqi capital. An account named "ISIS Media Hub" retweeted the cartoon, shown below.
ISIS even releases annual reports that detail the group's tactics, objectives, and progress in its campaign to establish an Islamic state. Alex Bilger of the Institute for the Study of War examined the group's second annual report, released in March. The document is filled with more than 400 pages of detailed statistics and tactical notes. Noting the group's organized operating structure and sophisticated strategy, he concluded that ISIS is "functioning as a military rather than as a terrorist network."
And the report is not meant only for internal consumption. A well-designed cover and an infographic that breaks down attack numbers by type suggest that ISIS wanted the document to see the light of day.
"This is not a terrorism problem anymore. This is an army on the move in Iraq and Syria, and they are taking terrain," Jessica Lewis, an ISIS expert at the Institute for the Study of War, told Time. "They have shadow governments in and around Baghdad, and they have an aspirational goal to govern."
As ISIS continues to expand its control of Iraqi territory and make good on its promise to erase the boundary between Iraq and Syria, the war it is fighting against the Iraqi army is looking less like a battle between government and terrorists and more like a clash between two militaries with competing visions of how to rule their country. ISIS is indeed a terrorist organization, but with an unprecedented emphasis on "organization." To think of it as anything but the state that it aspires to be is to misunderstand the threat it presents. (Adapted from "The Atlantic"& "Foreign Affairs Magazine")
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