IDN TAKE: Quantifying S-400 Triumf SAM Requirment to Protect our Borders

With Indian government opting for Russia's S-400 Triumf Missile Defence System (MDS) for securing the borders of India it is a welome decision. A decision that should have been put into effect a lot earlier. It is heartening to see defence planners thinking on a comprehensive strategy to counter the possible threats perceived by policy makers. The thinking behind the induction of MDS S400 is a part of that strategy which emphasizes on countering possible threats in the form of  destructive missiles & invading fighter aircrafts emanating from across the border of India with the possibility of a two front war perceived by our defence analysts and defence wings. The decision making and the initiative that of the Indian Govt. in this regard is quite appreciable.

S400 has the farthest range of performance envelope amongst the prevalent ballistic missile defence shields. Russia historically have provided India with defence equipments of crucial capabilities bolstering deterrence capabilities. Hence Russian S400 system becomes a natural choice.

When one considers the number of S400 systems (12 systems) decided to be implemented, it seems that the military planners have either thought of deterring threats at few sections of the length of the country's border or the induction of more MDS like the S400 throughout the country shall be a gradual process thereby covering greater lengths of country's border. Number of MDS like S400 that may be required to defend the aforesaid threat perception can be reached through an analysis which is as follows:

Flying distance across the length and breath of India stands at 2755 Kms (approx., but can be more) from Kashmir to Kanya Kumari and 2151 Km from Gandhi Nagar to Itanagar ( length is incomplete, a correct estimate of the distance from extreme west to the north eastern tip of Arunachal Pradesh will be more and has to be assessed) respectively. Taking into account the whole of India's borders we can divide it into 7 sections. From Kanya Kumari up till the northern tip of Sikkim, from Kanya Kumari till extreme west of Rajasthan ,from The northern tip of Sikkim till J & K (excluding POK), from extreme west of Rajasthan till J&K (excluding POK), the eastern region from northern tip of Sikkim till Arunachal Pradesh , Andaman & Nicobar islands and Lakshwadeep.

Taking into consideration the curvatures of the landscape with 30% redundancy into account for comprehensive coverage ensuring overlapping domains of coverage and the demand of extreme quick reaction from the nearest MDS ( quick reaction required due to the curvatures of borders ) having probability of quickest interception would require approximately 68 MDS of S400 with the overlapping domains. The overlapped domains of coverage having at least 100 Kms as common coverage area between 2 MDS should be another criteria for calculations to determine the number of required MDS.

Across the extreme south east to north of Arunachal Pradesh the requiement should be 1 +1 =2 MDS. From Extreme North of Arunachal Pradesh till Extreme West of Arunachal Pradesh the requirement should be 1+1 =2 MDS. From thereon till Northern tip of Sikkim the requiement should be 2 + 30% redundancy = 2+1=3 MDS. Actually military planners should keep provision for 4 more MDS in this eastern region from Northern tip of Sikkim till Arunachal Pradesh taking into account the acuteness of the curvatures of the landscape and obstacles. Since Myanmar and Bangladesh does not feature in serious threat category a total of strategically placed 13 MDS as per threat evaluation should suffice.

Likewise, Andaman and Nicobar islands merit 3 S400 systems i.e. 2+1 MDS. and Lakshadeep 2 MDS i.e. 1+1 . 

All the assumptions are made on the basis of the coverage of the longest reaching missile 40N6 of S 400 system with performance range of 400 Kms.

In addition to the conclusive numbers of MDS to be implemented 9 (5 for bordrs with Pakistan + 4 for the Eastern region including Sikkim till Arunachal Pradesh) more MDS should be in reserve for unforeseen contingencies keeping in mind the POK region and other sensitive regions along China & Pakistan borders, and, another 7 for cannibalizing during war. 

Army will have to ensure to protect the MDS from threats emanating from inside the country. Such systems along with the calculated redundancies have to be placed in active mode all along the designated section of the border. MDS in reserve should be placed or moved according to evolving threat perceptions and perceived locations of usage. Missiles of such systems have to be available in sufficient numbers per system for quick installation after a launch.

Follow on replacements against the initial reserve of such missiles systems would be required keeping in mind their shelf life. Like every system has its own maintenance cycle the MDS won't be an exception. But all in all it will be a very potent inclusion in the inventory of the army making it extremely capable of meeting aerial threats from outside the borders of India.

Debojyoti Kumar is a Defence enthusiast and an avid IDN fan. This well researched piece was written by him exclusively for IDN.

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